USDA's November report put 2026/27 US soybean production at 4.574 billion bushels, above the prior 4.562 billion but below the 4.601 billion the market expected. Final US soybean stocks were cut to 300 million bushels against 336 million expected, and exports were raised to 1.720 billion bushels, lifting Chicago soybeans.
A tighter-than-expected US soybean balance sheet and higher export demand support soybean and meal prices and can partly pass through to Brazilian farm-gate prices. Corn weakened on the same report, so the grains moved in different directions.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.