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The 9.75 percentage point gap between the US benchmark rate of 4.0% and Brazil's Selic rate of 13.75% is a key driver of capital flows into the real. On 14 November the dollar traded at 5.6512 reais, up 0.38%.
The gap has held flat over the past 30 days.
A wide interest-rate gap supports the real and attracts carry trades, but a narrowing gap could trigger capital outflows and a weaker real, which would make Brazilian exports cheaper for overseas feed buyers.
brznews.comSofia MarinNov 14, 2026After 301 past bullish macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (57% higher; middle half -1.2% to +1.7%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
