President Trump's shifting stance on Iran created uncertainty on November 14, 2026, with contradictory statements complicating efforts to stabilize the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait handles about 20 million barrels per day of oil and petroleum products, and disruptions could raise fuel, fertilizer and freight costs.
Risks to Hormuz flows could lift crude, diesel and fertilizer prices, raising feed production and transport costs, though the article is commentary on risk rather than a confirmed supply loss.
After 659 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.8% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.