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Brent briefly surged more than 50% to around $112 a barrel as the near-complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Middle East energy facilities disrupted supply. Physical barrel prices rose even more than futures as tight supply lifted spot premiums.
Physical crude tightness raises the real cost of energy for processors and transporters, which pushes up biofuel feedstock and logistics costs that flow through to feed ingredient prices.
bloomberg.comAlex Longley, Grant Smith, Rong Wei NeoMar 20, 2026After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 626 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median +2.1% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -2.3% to +8.5%), and +1.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
