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Inmet and NOAA's Climate Prediction Center project a Pacific temperature anomaly of 2.53 °C from November to January, with 96% to 100% probability of a very strong El Niño. A transition to neutral conditions is possible in autumn 2027.
Separately, sugar shipment bookings at Brazilian ports rose 34.5% to 2.02 million tonnes across 53 vessels.
A very strong El Niño raises the risk of drought in parts of South America and irregular rain in Brazil's growing regions, which could cut crop supply and lift feed grain prices later in the season.
agrodiario.com.brRedação Agro DiárioNov 14, 2026After 1,981 past weather events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
