US Rural Mainstreet Index Drops Below Growth Neutral as Fertiliser and Fuel Costs Bite

The Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) dropped to 44.7 in September 2026, down from 50.3 in August, marking the fourth time in the past six months that the gauge of agricultural and energy-dependent rural economies in a 10-state US region has fallen below the growth-neutral level of 50.0, according to Creighton University's monthly survey of bank CEOs.

Ernie Goss of Creighton University, who conducts the survey, attributed the decline to input cost pressures overriding any benefit from stronger grain markets. "Pessimism from higher fuel and fertilizer costs exceeded the optimism stemming from higher grain prices, according to bankers across the 10-state region," Goss said.

The findings are directly relevant to the feed manufacturing and animal nutrition sector, as elevated fertiliser prices raise the cost of producing feed grains, while higher fuel costs increase transportation and production expenses throughout the supply chain.

Fertiliser and Fuel Top the Pressure List

When asked to identify the input factors causing the greatest financial strain on agricultural customers, 52.6% of surveyed bankers named higher fertiliser costs as the primary concern, while the remaining 47.4% cited soaring fuel costs as the leading pressure, according to the survey.

Jim Eckert, Executive Vice President at Anchor State Bank in Anchor, Illinois, noted early signs of yield pressure alongside the cost concerns. "Corn harvest has begun in our area. Early reports are that corn yields are down at least 10% from 2025. Current fuel prices and fertilizer prices for 2027 are major concerns," Eckert said.

Tariffs Weigh on Agricultural Economy

The survey also examined the impact of trade tariffs. Approximately 79.0% of bank CEOs reported that tariffs were having a negative impact on the agriculture and livestock economy in their area, while the remaining 21.0% said tariffs had little or no impact on farmer and rancher economic conditions, according to the survey results.

Goss linked tariffs and the broader geopolitical environment to a prolonged slump in farm equipment purchases. "This is the 37th straight month the index has fallen below growth neutral. The 2026 conflict in Iran and tariffs on imported steel/aluminum have created even more volatility and reluctance among farmers and ranchers to purchase new farm equipment," he stated. The farm equipment sales index edged up slightly to 25.0 in September from 22.2 in August, but remained deeply below the growth-neutral threshold.

Land Values Hold, Confidence Weak

Despite the broader downturn, the farm and ranchland price index climbed above growth neutral for the fourth time in five months, rising to 50.1 from 47.2 in August. Goss noted a divergence between asset values and income: "Farm and ranchland values have been holding up much better than farm and ranching income."

The survey found that 89.5% of bankers identified existing farmers as the top buyers of farm and ranchland in their areas, with investors accounting for the remaining 10.5%. Other categories — including international buyers, institutional purchasers, and beginning farmers — were not named by any respondents.

Forward-looking sentiment deteriorated further. The economic confidence index fell to 26.3 in September from 31.6 in August, indicating that rural bankers remain pessimistic about economic growth over the next six months.

The RMI survey covers approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300 across 10 states dependent on agriculture and/or energy.