
Algeria bought more than 700,000 tonnes of soft wheat between November 9 and 13, bringing its 2026 imports above 5.3 million tonnes. Much of the latest purchase is expected from Argentina, and French exports to Algeria are now close to zero after averaging 6 to 8 million tonnes a year from 2018 to 2023.
Losing Algeria as a major buyer shifts wheat flows toward Argentina and Eastern Europe and pressures French export prices. The new Argentine crop offers competitive prices that reinforce this shift.
After 379 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.