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Palm oil production in Southeast Asia faces growing risk from a probable El Nino later this year, after estates were already hit by a dry spell from mid-January to mid-March. Forecasters expect drier conditions from late May through July, and Bursa Malaysia palm oil futures advanced to RM2,669 a tonne.
El Nino typically curbs rainfall in Indonesia and Malaysia, which together produce 86% of world palm oil, so a yield drop later in 2026 could tighten supply and support palm oil prices.
theedgemalaysia.comNov 14, 2026After 181 past bullish weather events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -0.9% to +1.9%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
