
Gold fell to near $3,850 an ounce on Thursday, its lowest level in over 13 months. The decline followed hawkish Fed comments and hotter-than-expected US inflation data, with markets pricing a 100% chance of a December rate hike and the dollar index near 103.
A stronger dollar and higher rates raise the cost of holding commodities and tighten financial conditions. For feed markets this strengthens the dollar, which tends to pressure US commodity export prices and supports importers' buying power.
After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.