
Brent crude settled virtually unchanged at $95.84 a barrel on Friday, while WTI settled at $88.56 after a second straight weekly decline. The International Energy Agency forecast a surplus of about 2 million barrels per day this quarter, the first since the Iran war began, and cut its 2026 demand forecast while raising its supply estimate.
A swing to surplus removes the supply premium built up during the Middle East disruptions, pointing to lower crude and diesel costs that ease feed-production and freight expenses. Lower energy prices also weaken the biofuel-linked pull on vegetable oils.
After 131 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.0% to +2.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.