Dollar buckles on US disinflation signs as Fed nears end of hiking cycle

After 1,637 past bearish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.3%), and -0.2% over 20.

• Apr 4, 2023Dollar slumps after weak data, markets bet Fed nears end of hiking cycle+0.4%
• Feb 12, 2024US Dollar: A Week of Disinflation Tests | Investing.com UK+0.1%
• Aug 28, 2020Dollar slides as bond market signals rising inflation angst-0.5%
• Jun 29, 2026US Dollar Index: Fed hikes repriced on softer inflation – Deutsche Bank-0.0%
• Oct 30, 2019Dollar dips as Fed signals pause in rate-cutting cycle+0.1%

After 388 past bullish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.4% to +1.1%), and +0.1% over 20.

• Jul 31, 2026US Dollar: Post-Fed losses extend as positioning unwinds – ING-0.0%
• Aug 31, 2020Dollar hits two-year low, fourth month of losses on Fed inflation mandate-0.7%
• Jan 30, 2019US Dollar In Sharp Sell-off Vs Euro, Pound As FED Confirms Will Be 'Patient' On Future Hikes-0.2%
• Jun 27, 2025Dollar hovers near 3-1/2-year low with market focus on US rate cuts, euro area inflation+0.3%
• Sep 9, 2022Dollar slides as investors balance positions ahead of U.S. inflation data | Reuters+0.4%