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ING says the dollar is consolidating after the ECB and Bank of Canada signalled a desire to diverge from the Fed. A hot US CPI print triggered a substantial dollar rally.
Markets may begin to decouple Fed rate expectations from those of other central banks.
If other central banks keep cutting while the Fed holds, the dollar stays firm, which weighs on EUR and CAD and on dollar-priced commodities. The effect on feed prices is indirect.
think.ing.comFrancesco Pesole, Frantisek Taborsky, Chris TurnerApr 12, 2024After 2,356 past bullish macro events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (60% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.7%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 533 past bearish macro events, Euro (USD per EUR) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (33% higher; middle half -1.2% to +0.2%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Hot CPI triggered a dollar rally while the ECB and BoC signaled divergence from the Fed.
