
Oil prices were mixed on Friday, with Brent up 2 cents to $95.84 and WTI down 18 cents to $88.56, both on track for weekly declines above 2%. The IEA reported a growing global supply surplus, with Gulf oil exports recovering to 74% of pre-war levels and observed inventories rising in October for the first time since June.
A shift from shortage to surplus signals softer crude prices ahead, which lowers diesel and fertilizer costs and reduces the energy-driven support for vegetable oils and biofuel feedstocks.
After 338 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -2.2% over 5 sessions (36% higher; middle half -5.2% to +1.9%), and -1.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.