
Russian farmers are summarizing the 2026 harvest. Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Patrushev expects 140 million tonnes of grain and 35 million tonnes of oilseeds, with oilseed harvesting nearly complete.
Government support in 2026 focused on logistics and exports, including nearly 10 billion rubles in rail tariff subsidies and a minimum grain purchase price order effective 30 October 2026.
A large harvest with state support for exports and logistics points to ample Russian grain supply, which tends to weigh on world wheat and oilseed prices. The effect is gradual and mostly already expected.
After 123 past bearish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.1%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.