
Chicago wheat recovered from an early low on November 13, trading up 1.1% at US$5.905 a bushel. USDA raised projected 2026/27 global wheat ending stocks by 4.8 million tonnes to 280.8 million, while cutting Russian and Ukrainian export forecasts by 1 million tonnes each due to shipping disruption.
Larger global stocks are bearish, but reduced Black Sea export availability limits what reaches buyers. Shipping constraints support wheat prices, especially for importers that rely on Black Sea supply.
After 292 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.