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Commonwealth Bank analyst Dennis Voznesenski forecast that if Black Sea shipping routes remain closed, wheat prices could rise 18–24% in 2027; reopening ports early in the year could keep prices near current levels. A prolonged closure would leave Ukraine and Russia with about 60% of their pre-July export capacity, while lower wheat output among major exporters and reduced winter-wheat plantings in Europe, Ukraine and Russia could further tighten supply.
The analyst also expects barley prices to rise substantially if port restrictions persist.
Disrupted Black Sea export capacity would reduce available wheat and barley on world markets, supporting prices; the projected wheat increase depends on ports remaining closed.
my.uaNov 9, 2026After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
