Russia's Baltic ports have raised their annual grain export capacity to 23.5 million tonnes from 8.6 million in July 2026, and Russian Railways says they could handle as much grain in October as in all of last season. Baltic ports took an estimated 60% of Russian wheat exports in September, but overall Russian exports fell more than 40% year on year, building domestic stocks and depressing domestic prices.
Rapid Baltic capacity growth partly reroutes Russian wheat but does not offset the Black Sea loss, so global wheat availability stays constrained while Russian domestic prices weaken.
After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.