BIMCO estimates Russian and Ukrainian grain shipments fell 49% in January-August 2025, cutting global grain shipments by 6%. Other exporters only partly offset the gap, reducing demand for Panamax, Supramax and Handysize bulk carriers.
Lower Black Sea grain volumes reduce bulk freight demand, which pressures ocean freight rates, while tighter export supply supports grain prices.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 283 past bullish logistics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.3%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.