
Kernel Holding suspended operations at its eight industrial plants in Ukraine after Russian drone attacks damaged factory buildings, machinery and warehouses. Delta Wilmar and Potoky also suspended operations, and the article cites a USDA projection of Ukrainian sunflower oil exports at 5.0 million tonnes in 2026/27.
Losing Ukrainian crushing capacity removes sunflower oil and meal supply from the Black Sea, tightening vegetable oil markets and supporting palm and soybean oil prices as buyers such as India seek substitutes.
After 110 past bullish geopolitics events, Soybean Oil moved a median +1.8% over 5 sessions (65% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.6%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.