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South Australia's 2026 harvest has started early, with barley deliveries at Thevenard from late September. Timely rains are supporting forecasts for a record crop in the state after years of drought.
A record South Australian crop adds to export supply of barley and wheat, which is mildly bearish for feed grain prices. The effect is limited because the state's share of the national crop is modest.
After 335 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.