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Recent rains in southern Australian wheat areas lifted harvest estimates to around 26 to 28 million tonnes, up from under 25 million a month earlier. Analysts say the crop quality is excellent, though northern areas remain dry.
A larger Australian harvest offsets crop losses in Argentina and Canada, adding supply that exerts downward pressure on global wheat prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.