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Analysts now expect Australia's wheat harvest at 32-35 million tonnes, raised after improved crop conditions. Australian Crop Forecasters raised its wheat forecast 7% to 33.1 million tonnes, and ABARES publishes its updated estimate on September 2.
A larger Australian wheat crop adds to global supply while Chicago prices are near their lowest since 2020, pressuring wheat values.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.