
The Bureau of Meteorology forecasts a warmer and wetter than average spring for eastern Australia, with above-average rainfall across much of the east. A negative Indian Ocean Dipole is cited as the driver, and below-average rain is expected in parts of coastal Western Australia.
Good spring moisture in eastern Australia favors crop development and raises the chance of a larger wheat and barley harvest, which would weigh on export prices.
After 334 past bearish weather events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.7%), and -0.2% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.