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The IEA now expects global oil supply to exceed demand in Q4 2026 by about 1.7 million bpd, reversing its earlier deficit forecast. OPEC+ output reached 41.23 million bpd in October, about 2.04 million bpd above September, as Gulf producers moved crude through ship-to-ship transfers and expanded pipelines.
A shift to surplus from recovering Middle East exports pushes crude and diesel lower, reducing energy and freight costs for feed makers while easing the energy-linked support for biofuel feedstocks.
mansfield.energyCassia PazNov 13, 2026After 588 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -2.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +2.7%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
