The IEA projects a global oil surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter as Middle East exports recover faster than demand. It also said member countries will release 71 million barrels from emergency reserves through February, including 15 million barrels of diesel.
A projected surplus and emergency stock releases point to easing crude and diesel tightness, which lowers energy and transport costs for feed supply chains. Brent slipped after the report.
After 129 past bearish report events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.3% over 5 sessions (45% higher; middle half -3.9% to +2.5%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.