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NASS has revised the national corn yield estimate several times in 2026, lowering, raising and lowering it again after a data processing error in the September Crop Production report was later corrected. The November report was the most recent revision.
The October report raised the yield by nearly three bushels per acre and coincided with a 20 cent per bushel price drop on report day.
Swings in USDA yield estimates move corn prices, and the market is now more skeptical of the numbers. Because remaining yield uncertainty is higher this season, the price effect may be smaller if it arrives late in the season.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoNov 13, 2026After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
