
An interview with the Deputy Director General of the All India Distillers' Association says India's installed ethanol capacity is about 2,200 crore liters a year, roughly 1,300 crore liters of it grain-based. A 5% sustainable aviation fuel blend by 2030 would need only 160-200 crore liters of ethanol, but stable policy and long-term offtake agreements of 10-15 years are needed to attract investment.
Spare ethanol capacity means grain-based ethanol demand for corn and rice could grow only if SAF policy firms up, so the near-term price effect on feed grains is limited. Policy uncertainty keeps that demand case unproven.
After 439 past neutral policy events, Corn moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.2%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.