US courting Reliance refining muscle to keep oil flowing, not curb Russian crude, analyst says

After 63 past neutral geopolitics events, BRENT moved a median -0.5% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -4.4% to +2.6%), and -2.7% over 20.

• Jul 31, 2018Aramco unlikely to reduce oil exports to West after Houthi attack, analysts say | The National-2.5%
• Nov 20, 2025Refining Margins Soar as Global Oil Product Markets Tighten | OilPrice.com+0.5%
• Jun 24, 2025What influences crude oil more? US bombs or Iran's silent allies-6.9%
• Nov 22, 2021OPEC considers lowering production to account for oil reserve releases-8.8%
• Dec 2, 2022OPEC+ decision on oil quotas muddled by Russian sanctions | S&P Global-12.1%

After 60 past neutral geopolitics events, WTI moved a median -0.9% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -4.7% to +2.3%), and -1.9% over 20.

• Nov 20, 2025Refining Margins Soar as Global Oil Product Markets Tighten | OilPrice.com-2.1%
• Jun 24, 2025What influences crude oil more? US bombs or Iran's silent allies-4.6%
• Dec 30, 2025Russia attacks Ukraine's Black Sea ports and civilian ships, Kyiv says | MarketScreener-1.6%
• Feb 6, 2020U.S., global oil benchmarks split ways as Russia resists deeper OPEC+ output cuts - MarketWatch+0.6%
• Nov 22, 2021OPEC considers lowering production to account for oil reserve releases-8.2%