
Wheat fell on the Matif and CBoT, with the December Matif contract down EUR 3.75 to EUR 232.50 per ton and CBoT wheat down 15 cents to $5.84 per bushel. Talks between Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi ended without a breakthrough, and Ukrainian wheat exports were 39% lower than a year earlier.
Stalled Black Sea talks keep grain export flows through the region constrained, and with Russian seaborne grain exports down 56% in October the market is pricing limited relief.
After 361 past bullish geopolitics events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.4% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.