
CONAB's second 2026/27 survey puts the grain harvest at 366.1 million tons on 85.3 million hectares, with yield projected 1% lower. Soybeans are forecast at 181.6 million tons from 49.3 million hectares, and corn production is increasing, especially first-crop corn.
Sorghum, cotton and soybean areas are also expanding.
A larger Brazilian crop from expanded area adds to global export supply, which is bearish for soybeans and corn. The small yield decline partly offsets the area gain.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 1,102 past bearish report events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.3%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.