The commercial dollar closed at R$5.65 on Thursday, its highest close since June 2025, driven by investor dissatisfaction with the government's tax package and dollar strength abroad. It opened Friday at R$5.64.
Ibovespa fell, and oil rose on US-Iran tensions with Brent at US$95.82.
A stronger dollar against the real raises Brazil's cost of imported inputs, while supporting the competitiveness of Brazilian soybean meal and corn exports. Higher oil prices lift diesel and freight costs for feed logistics.
After 92 past neutral macro events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +0.4% over 20.
After 323 past bullish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -2.9% to +3.7%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.