
European gas prices rose above 95 EUR/MWh on November 13, a two-week high, amid Middle East tensions, colder weather expectations and Norwegian pipeline disruptions. European storage was 71.25% full, well below the five-year average of 89%.
Low storage and Norwegian outages support higher European gas prices into winter, raising nitrogen fertilizer and energy costs that pressure feed production margins.
After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.