
Crude oil extended its rebound on Thursday but is on track for a second weekly loss as momentum faded. OPEC's October output rose 1.93 million bpd from September, while the IEA cut its 2026 and 2027 oil demand growth forecasts by 100,000 bpd each.
Product markets remain near the bottom of their November downtrends.
Energy-wide price moves feed into biofuel and diesel costs and freight, which affect feed ingredient economics. Softer crude weighs on ethanol and vegetable oil biofuel demand sentiment.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.