Oil settles lower as investors brace for possible OPEC+ output hike

After 565 past bearish macro events, WTI moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Jan 27, 2017Canadian dollar weakens as oil falls, investors brace for Poloz+0.2%
• Aug 21, 2023Crude oil settles lower as hope fades for Chinese demand-1.2%
• Jun 1, 2025Oil ends at four-year lows as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes+6.2%
• Oct 23, 2018Canadian dollar shakes off plunge in oil as investors brace for BoC rate hike - The Globe and Mail-3.2%
• Aug 16, 2023Oil settles lower as China fears, rate hikes counter tight US supply-0.9%

After 312 past bearish macro events, BRENT moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Aug 21, 2023Crude oil settles lower as hope fades for Chinese demand-0.5%
• Jun 1, 2025Oil ends at four-year lows as OPEC+ accelerates output hikes+4.9%
• Aug 16, 2023Oil settles lower as China fears, rate hikes counter tight US supply-1.4%
• Sep 29, 2025Brent Prices Retreat below $70 as OPEC+ Mulls Another Output Hike | OilPrice.com-7.5%
• Jul 7, 2026Oil prices settle at pre-Iran war levels as crude output grows+16.5%