Oil settles lower as China fears, rate hikes counter tight US supply

After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.

• Aug 21, 2023Crude oil settles lower as hope fades for Chinese demand-1.2%
• Oct 28, 2020Oil Falls As Rise In US Crude Stocks Fans Over-Supply Fears-4.8%
• Jan 27, 2025Oil hits 2-week low as China's DeepSeek AI spurs demand fears | Reuters-2.8%
• Oct 1, 2025Oil settles lower as investors brace for possible OPEC+ output hike-1.0%
• Sep 21, 2022WTI Falls as USD Spikes to 20-Year High after Fed Rate Hike-6.9%

After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.

• Aug 21, 2023Crude oil settles lower as hope fades for Chinese demand-0.5%
• Oct 28, 2020Oil Falls As Rise In US Crude Stocks Fans Over-Supply Fears-3.8%
• Jan 27, 2025Oil hits 2-week low as China's DeepSeek AI spurs demand fears | Reuters-2.1%
• Oct 1, 2025Oil settles lower as investors brace for possible OPEC+ output hike-2.2%
• May 19, 2021Oil prices dive $2 on fears of Asian pandemic, possible U.S. rate hikes | Reuters-0.2%