
Brent fell below $70 per barrel on Sept 29 as Iraq resumed Kurdistan crude exports to Turkey and OPEC+ was expected to consider another 137,000 bpd November increase. WTI slipped below $65 after Brent had hit $70 on Friday, the highest in nearly two months.
Added Kurdish barrels and expected OPEC+ hikes raise oversupply concerns and push crude lower, which feeds through to energy and biofuel input costs.
After 312 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.