
The Canadian dollar edged higher on October 23 as investors kept bets that the Bank of Canada would raise rates the next day, despite a sharp drop in oil. US crude futures settled 4.2 percent lower at $66.43 a barrel on stock sell-off worries and Saudi supply comments.
Lower crude weighs on energy costs and Canadian export earnings, while a firmer loonie on rate expectations raises the cost of Canadian-sourced commodities priced in US dollars.
After 565 past bearish macro events, Crude Oil (WTI) moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.