
Industry analysts say diesel supplies are adequate ahead of the January 1, 2020 IMO mandate cutting marine fuel sulfur to 0.5%. Ships have prepositioned diesel and many will use scrubbers rather than switch fuels.
Adequate prepositioned supply lowers the risk of a diesel price spike from the IMO transition, which is bearish for diesel-linked freight costs. Shipping fuel demand shifts could still add some volatility.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.