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Global diesel and distillate stocks built over the third quarter as high crude prices and refining margins encouraged refinery runs and reduced fuel use. Diesel demand is weakening with the business cycle as manufacturing and construction slow.
Easing diesel tightness and softer demand point to lower fuel costs ahead, modestly reducing freight and processing expenses for feed.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.