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Global diesel prices are falling as economic slowdown intensifies. The US ULSD spread over Brent narrowed to $205 per tonne on April 4, down from $261 at the start of 2023 and a peak of $316 in October 2022.
A narrowing diesel crack signals weaker distillate demand from slowing economies, which lowers transport and processing costs but points to softer industrial activity.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.