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A nationwide freight slowdown has helped cut U.S. diesel prices roughly in half from last year's record. Wholesale diesel fell to $2.65 a gallon in New York Harbor, down from $5.34 last May.
Falling diesel reflects weaker freight and industrial demand, a macro warning sign; lower fuel costs ease farm and feed transport expenses but signal softer demand for goods and grain hauling.
After 79 past bearish macro events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.