
Oil prices settled slightly higher on January 24 but posted a weekly decline, ending four weeks of gains. Trump announced plans to boost domestic output while calling on OPEC to lower prices, with Brent at $78.50 and WTI at $74.66.
Weekly losses and presidential pressure on OPEC point to softer crude costs ahead, which eases diesel and fertilizer input costs for feed mills. The outlook depends on OPEC+ response.
After 565 past bearish macro events, WTI moved a median -1.4% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -5.9% to +3.0%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 312 past bearish macro events, BRENT moved a median -1.7% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -5.4% to +2.3%), and -1.7% over 20.
After 79 past bearish macro events, DIESEL moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -5.7% to +1.7%), and -1.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.