
World Bank and Trading Economics data show DAP rising from $619 per ton in January to about $692 by late March, and potash reaching $488, its highest since February 2023. The US-Iran war that began February 28 and Chinese export restrictions are pushing phosphate prices higher.
Export curbs from China, the top phosphate exporter, combined with war-related disruption point to continued phosphate and potash price strength through 2026, raising costs for feed-grain producers.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.