
StoneX analyst Josh Linville said U.S. phosphate prices may already have passed their 2026 low, citing Mosaic's production cuts, China's export restrictions until at least August, and high sulfur costs for Russian and Moroccan producers. Mosaic's CEO said the company is ready to curtail output further if margins do not improve.
Rising input costs and possible further curtailments point to firmer phosphate prices, raising fertilizer costs for the coming season.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.