Loading…
China may export only about 2 Mt of urea and 4 Mt of DAP, well below normal 5-10 Mt volumes, as Beijing controls outflows. Heavy Midwest rains are rebuilding North American fertilizer inventories, while EU-led sanctions could curb Russian and Belarusian potash flows.
Restricted Chinese phosphate and urea exports keep global fertilizer supply tight, supporting prices. Potash supply risk from sanctions could lift input costs for corn and soybean growers.
stonex.comGustian FarrowJun 3, 2025After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
