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IFDC's fertilizer crisis bulletin warns that disruption through the Strait of Hormuz is raising freight, insurance and supplier risk costs for ammonia, LNG, urea, DAP and MAP. Physical shortages are not yet widespread, but speculative behaviour is tightening supply and lifting prices in Africa.
Hormuz disruption raises landed costs for nitrogen and phosphate imports, supporting global urea and DAP prices and adding freight pressure.
ifdc.orgAfricaFertilizer Staff, IFDC Staff, Sustain Africa StaffApr 7, 2026After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, UREA moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 114 past bullish geopolitics events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.2%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
