
European gas prices rose above 95 EUR/MWh, a two-week high, on colder weather expectations, Norwegian supply disruptions and curtailed Middle East LNG. EU storage was below 72%, against a 5-year seasonal average of 89.1%.
Low storage and a cold outlook increase winter gas demand in Europe, which lifts gas-based fertilizer costs and supports prices for nitrogen-linked feed inputs.
After 221 past bullish weather events, Natural Gas moved a median +3.3% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -5.2% to +14.0%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 30 past bullish weather events, Urea moved a median +1.4% over 5 sessions (67% higher; middle half -0.3% to +1.6%), and +9.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.