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Goldman Sachs projects European gas could reach 150 EUR/MWh in Q1 2027 if Persian Gulf LNG exports average 25-30% of pre-war levels and Europe has a colder-than-average winter. Under a scenario where Gulf exports stay near 35% of pre-war levels, the bank sees TTF averaging 104 EUR/MWh in 2027.
The forecast links European gas prices to the pace of Gulf LNG recovery, so sustained supply loss would keep gas-based fertilizer and processing costs elevated. The projections are scenario-based rather than a confirmed move.
investing.comNov 13, 2026After 136 past bullish geopolitics events, Natural Gas moved a median +2.7% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -1.8% to +8.8%), and +4.0% over 20.
After 205 past bullish geopolitics events, Urea moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -2.1% to +3.0%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
