
India's cabinet approved a Rabi-season fertiliser subsidy outlay of about Rs 62,400 crore for October 2026 to March 2027, up 64% year on year. Nitrogen, phosphorus and sulphur subsidy rates rose sharply, while potash stayed unchanged.
A Dolat Capital report says the change should narrow the price gap between DAP and complex fertilisers.
Higher subsidies should lift complex fertiliser demand and reduce farmers' reliance on DAP, shifting phosphate and nitrogen purchases in India. This supports fertiliser manufacturers' margins but has little direct effect on feed grain prices.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
After 26 past neutral policy events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (27% higher; middle half -4.1% to +0.6%), and -2.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.