
Mosaic Co. has filed two federal lawsuits at the Court of International Trade arguing that countervailing duties on phosphate fertilizer imports from Morocco and Russia are too low. Mosaic says the Commerce Department miscalculated foreign government subsidies, and Commerce set a 19.97% duty rate for OCP SA's fertilizer.
Imports from Morocco were about $730 million in 2019 and from Russia about $300 million.
If the court raises the duties, imported phosphate fertilizer such as DAP would cost more in the US, supporting domestic prices and reducing import competition for US producers.
After 151 past bullish policy events, DAP moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.9%), and +1.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.